Like Saturday’s successful SpaceX launch, the rebound in U.S. stocks since they hit the March 23 low has been stellar. The S&P 500 index’s best two-month’s since 2009.
Optimism over the nation’s gradual reopening and progress towards the development of a coronavirus vaccine has lifted the S&P 500 36 percent. Cutting losses for the year to 5.8 percent. Last week, the index rallied another 3 percent. The S&P 500 rose 4.53 percent in May. Which followed an April return of 12.68 percent.
It becomes more difficult by the day to argue that this remains a “Bear-Market Rally.” The higher prices go, the more the market confirms this is no drill, but a legitimate move higher.
Investors have embraced signs that economic activity could resume faster than most expect across parts of the U.S. and around the world. Restaurant bookings, hotel spending and airline travel appears to be picking up. Coinciding with a decline in daily new virus infections. This missive has long held that the best means of research usually arrives via the empirical evidence immediately before us. Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index? After a weekend of watching people enjoying out and about, one easily discerns that confidence has elevated month over month. Crowded restaurant patios. Busy boutiques. Walkers. Runners. Images of crowds on Florida beaches. All signs of people ready to resume their normal lives. Continue reading